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*Progressive Betting BlackjackGambling Tips > Blackjack USING PROGRESSIVE BETTING AT BLACKJACKBy Henry Tamburin
As the name implies, this is a blackjack side bet with a progressive jackpot. For an optional $1, the blackjack player may win $3 to the progressive jackpot, which starts at $25,000. I saw this side bet at the New York New York casino, where they had three tables tied into the same progressive. Progressive Blackjack Betting Systems. A progressive betting system is a kind of strategy that people employ when they play casino gambling games, one of which is blackjack, whereby the amount bet is lowered or raised depending on whether the previous hand was won or lost.
The intent of a progressive betting system is to vary the size of your bets in a predetermined manner, according to whether or not you won (or lost) the previous bet. Many recreational players use them when they play blackjack. I’ll focus on one of the most famous and widely used progressive betting systems, the Martingale, or double-up, system.
Using the Martingale betting system, you double your previous bet after every loss until you finally win a hand, at which point you will be ahead by one betting unit. For example, suppose you wager $10 and the results of the next three hands are loss, loss, and win (L-L-W). You would have lost $10 on the first hand, $20 on the second hand, and won $40 on the third hand. You wind up with a net win of $10, which is the goal of the progression, to win an amount equal to your starting wager.
Progressive bettors will tell you that if you just follow the betting system and leave the table after a win you always walk away with a profit. The downfall of the Martingale occurs is when you experience a sequence of losses. Progressive bettors will always counter with “the chance that this will happen is slim.” Really? With the help of Donald Schlessinger (Blackjack Attack; Playing the Pros’ Way), and the Wizard of Odds, Michael Shackleford (www.wizardofodds.com), they calculated the following percentages for a streak of ten losses in a row.
You have about a 52 percent chance of losing a hand in blackjack (excluding ties). The chance that you will lose, say, ten consecutive (resolved) hands followed by a win is 0.069 percent, meaning you will average one sequence of ten losing hands (excluding ties) followed by a win in about every 1439 hands, and so, this losing streak will occur about once in roughly fourteen hours of play (assuming you play 100 resolved hands per hour). And get this ... you don’t know when that string of ten consecutive losses followed by a win will occur in the fourteen hours (of course, it may not occur at all). The math says that you have a 2.99 percent chance of losing ten in a row in the first hour; a 6.18 percent in the first two hours; and 15.13 percent chance after five hours. Sadly for Martingale bettors, a streak of ten consecutive losses is not such a rare event after all.
What about all those frequent winning sessions that Martingale players (and system sellers) always tout about this system? The fact is this: although most players will walk away a small winner most of the time, the money you will lose in that one catastrophic losing session will more than completely wipe out all the money that you will win in your more frequent winning sessions. In the long run, your wins and losses will add up to the casino’s edge, and the amount of money that you will lose using the Martingale betting system will be close to the casino’s theoretical edge in the game times the total amount of money that you wagered, the same as it is for every other player who plays blackjack (except card counters). In other words, mathematically speaking, you can’t, and you won’t, gain the advantage over the casino using a Martingale betting system.
There is another more practical issue with the Martingale that also dooms most players who use it, and it’s this: on an extended losing streak, you may not be able to double-up your bets because you will bump up against the maximum betting limit imposed by casinos. For example, suppose you are a $5 bettor and you lose eight (resolved) hands in a row. Your losses at this point total $1,275 (gulp!). Assuming you have the bankroll (and the guts) to double up again, your next wager according to the Martingale is $1,280, which exceeds the $1,000 table-betting limit (that you’ll find in most casinos on low-limit tables). Unfortunately, there is no way for the progressive bettor to bet enough to recoup his losses when this occurs (other than to move to a higher-limit table).
My suggestion if you are a progressive bettor is to learn Speed Count, which will alert you when the edge shifts in your favor. Speed Count is easy to learn and it’s ideal for recreational players. You just count the small cards (2-6) and then at the end of the round you subtract the number of hands played. It’s that simple. Using Speed Count, you’ll know when the edge is in your favor and that’s when you should bet more (or use your progressive betting system).
Progressive betting systems alone will not reduce the house edge against you when you play blackjack. Speed Count will not only reduce the house edge, it will swing the edge in your favor. It’s a no-brainer.
You can get the details about Speed Count in the book Beat Blackjack Now! by Frank Scoblete. There is also an instructional DVD on Speed Count if you want to see Speed Count being used under casino-simulated conditions (seeing is believing ... for details go to www.goldentouchblackjack.com).
Most blackjack players use flat betting, which is when you bet the same amount all the time. However, some gamblers want more. Progressive blackjack betting systems are popular among players who want to win big and bring more excitement to the game.
In this article, we’ll look into two types of progressive betting in blackjack (positive and negative), and the most common systems for each type. By the end, you’ll have a good understanding of whether a progressive approach is for you.Progression Betting: Definition
What is progressive blackjack betting? Such systems have specific rules and conditions for either raising or decreasing the bet size. You take the results of the previous hand into consideration when adjusting your stakes. Exactly how you adjust depends on the system being used, i.e., whether it is a negative progression or a positive progression.
Generally, the most well-known systems are very easy to learn. The progressive blackjack rules are straightforward and only involve minor calculations. Also, there is no need to prepare. Other than having sufficient funds, you can start using any system whenever you want.Positive Blackjack Betting Progressions
Positive progression implies that you need to bet higher when you’re winning and lower when you’re losing. Of course, it’s hard to tell when a winning or losing streak will end. So, like in all instances of progressive blackjack betting, you need to take it slow. If you increase your bets in small amounts, it will help you avoid getting wiped out by a series of losses.Paroli
The Paroli strategy is a blackjack progressive betting system that takes advantage of winning streaks. Before playing, you’ll need to choose a number of wins in the progression. Let’s say your winning streak will start at three. Here is an example scenario:
*You bet $5 and win $5.
*For the next round, you bet $10 and win $10.
*The third time you place $20.
*Regardless of the outcome, you go back to the original $5 bet and start over.
If you lose at any part of your three-win progression, you’ll need to begin the sequence over again.One Half Up
Another popular progression is One Half Up, where you raise your bet after two consecutive wins. Each bet after that is increased by one half of your original bet. Here is how it works out:
*Suppose your first successful bet is $10.
*You place another $10, and if you want, you can start the progression.
*The next bet is $15 (one-half higher than the original one).
*If you win, you place $20 and so one.
*If you lose, you go back to the original $10 with a profit.Negative Blackjack Betting Progressions
A negative progression is based on the idea of increasing your bets after a loss. The reason is that when you eventually win, it will offset all the previous losses. Many players are especially interested in learning how to play progressive blackjack because negative progression promises massive returns (if you win). Martingale
The Martingale system is one of the oldest and most popular betting methods. It’s based on the notion that it’s unlikely to have numerous consecutive losses and a big win is bound to break it up. Here, whenever a player loses, they need to double their next bet to win the money back. After winning, they start over. Here is an example:
*You place $5 and lose the hand.
*The next bet is $10.
*If you win, you go back to $5 bets; if you lose, you raise the stakes to $20.
*Continue the cycle of doubling the bet size until you win.D’Alembert
This system also requires you to raise your bet by one unit after losses and lower them after wins. You need to decide what the unit would be before you start playing. It can be $1, $10, or anything else. Obviously, we recommend going for smaller units. For a $1 unit, it plays out like this:
*Place $1, and if you lose, you’ll place $2; if you win, place $1.
*Bet $2 and if you lose, raise it to $3; if you win, lower the next bet by $1.
If you have the same number of wins as you do losses, you will make a profit.The Dangers of Progression Betting in Blackjack
The premise behind progressive betting in blackjack is based on the gambler’s fallacy. Many people believe that if a coin landed on heads ten times in a row, then it would be more likely to land on tails the next time.Progressive Betting Chart
They apply this belief to blackjack as well. However, each time you play, the outcome depends on your skill, dealer’s hand, the house edge, and many other factors. But the likelihood of your next win is never affected by the results of the previous hand.
If you had an unlimited pot of money to bet with, you would have enough flexibility to play with progressions. But no one has an unlimited bankroll, and it leaves them exposed to big losses. Players would either run out of money or reach the table betting limits.Summary
There are no foolproof systems that guarantee profits in online blackjack games. You have a much better chance to win if you use card counting techniques. Also, as a beginner, you should master basic strategy before playing for real money. A combination of the two will give you better results than diving straight into betting strategies.
If you’re still interested in trying progression betting in gambling games, we recommend sticking to positive systems. The negative betting progressions are too dangerous, and you risk spending your entire bankroll if you use them consistently. But a positive system is much gentler to your funds as well as your emotional stability.
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